Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 39.361645 46.468864 54.236467 63.322991 73.626166 84.911069 98.169992
2025-01-12 30.480298 40.367479 52.177716 67.175390 85.551442 107.164299 134.322881
2025-01-19 22.352372 32.586545 45.734158 63.552923 86.725567 115.469672 153.401631
2025-01-26 18.896682 29.780143 44.597681 65.721905 94.463820 131.554339 182.279786
2025-02-02 17.003212 28.641014 45.280288 70.013493 104.921476 151.411355 216.800472
2025-02-09 14.877808 26.737212 44.508972 71.986297 112.107114 167.101170 246.437090
2025-02-16 12.975963 24.824005 43.392265 73.180044 118.059523 181.212477 274.423780
2025-02-23 11.140669 22.693380 41.620938 73.096959 121.970075 192.477907 298.803128
2025-03-02 9.356296 20.335453 39.156856 71.606168 123.514106 200.246801 318.389871
2025-03-09 8.067866 18.643224 37.554942 71.257963 126.646019 210.329662 341.575499
2025-03-16 6.447603 16.018227 33.997509 67.279082 123.669527 210.973045 350.727488
2025-03-23 5.857454 15.355510 33.854041 69.047749 129.988494 225.975092 381.845494
2025-03-30 4.923599 13.891224 32.227799 68.406577 132.866699 236.695158 408.444987
2025-04-06 4.600239 13.746449 33.163780 72.549386 144.242974 261.661486 458.560073
2025-04-13 3.578444 11.705966 29.995169 68.690993 141.438169 263.575847 472.563074
2025-04-20 3.230431 11.258614 30.063367 71.002888 149.645395 283.866774 516.593410
2025-04-27 3.085316 11.318598 31.232043 75.574555 162.203064 311.952565 574.275538
2025-05-04 2.784387 10.870368 31.193752 77.675051 170.298295 332.810281 620.891778
2025-05-11 2.469842 10.299428 30.784678 78.945755 176.877231 351.313984 664.260099
2025-05-18 2.124634 9.533946 29.791479 78.857321 180.810413 365.341090 700.607215
2025-05-25 1.760984 8.588699 28.196303 77.270368 181.669142 373.919237 727.978453
2025-06-01 1.502870 7.921156 27.200498 76.899650 184.869906 386.757619 763.023771
2025-06-08 1.151005 6.756698 24.657145 72.662068 179.884458 384.427740 771.604907